These California cities anticipate a significant surge in home sales next year
A new Realtor.com forecast predicts that housing sales will rebound substantially in a number of California cities in the coming year, as mortgage rates have finally begun to decline.
In 2024, five metro areas are expected to enjoy double-digit year-over-year sales growth.
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks (18%), Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario (13.8%), Bakersfield (13.4%), San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad (11%), and Sacramento (10.3%) are the top five.
Home sales in the Los Angeles-Long Beach area are expected to rise 9.2% after decreasing for two years, according to Realtor experts.
The top 100 metro regions were ranked by the online real estate listing service based on two factors: predicted single-family home sales growth and expected median home price growth.
According to Realtor, prices in all six of those California markets are likely to rise to more than 40% of the 2017-19 average.
“An interesting divide emerges among California metros.” “Five California metros made it into our top ten list of housing markets, but none were in the Bay Area or Northern California,” Realtor writes in its study.
Realtors forecast sales in San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara to fall 18.5% in 2024, 6% in Fresno, and virtually flat in the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley area.
Realtor.com® 2024 Housing Forecast – 100 Largest U.S. Metros (Ranked)
| Rank | Market Title | 2024 Existing Home Sale Counts Year-over-Year | 2024 Existing Home Sale Counts vs 2017-2019 Average | 2024 Existing Home Median Sale Price Year-over-Year | 2024 Existing Home Median Sale Price vs 2017-2019 Average | Combined 2024 Existing Home Sales and Price Growth |
| 1 | Toledo, OH | 14.0% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 43.4% | 22.3% |
| 2 | Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA | 18.0% | -35.1% | 3.3% | 43.3% | 21.3% |
| 3 | Rochester, NY | 6.2% | -20.6% | 10.4% | 66.5% | 16.6% |
| 4 | San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | 11.0% | -31.7% | 5.4% | 58.2% | 16.3% |
| 5 | Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 13.8% | -25.2% | 2.0% | 53.9% | 15.8% |
| 6 | Bakersfield, CA | 13.4% | -19.8% | 2.3% | 53.3% | 15.7% |
| 7 | Springfield, MA | 10.5% | -7.0% | 4.2% | 48.9% | 14.7% |
| 8 | Worcester, MA-CT | 9.1% | -17.2% | 4.8% | 61.8% | 13.9% |
| 9 | Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI | 6.1% | -20.5% | 7.2% | 72.3% | 13.3% |
| 10 | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | 9.2% | -31.9% | 3.5% | 45.1% | 12.7% |
| 11 | Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT | 3.1% | -13.5% | 9.1% | 59.5% | 12.2% |
| 12 | Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY | 8.3% | -9.4% | 3.9% | 55.9% | 12.1% |
| 13 | Scranton–Wilkes-Barre, PA | 5.5% | 16.2% | 6.3% | 61.0% | 11.8% |
| 14 | El Paso, TX | 6.3% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 66.8% | 10.9% |
| 15 | Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA | 5.6% | -7.6% | 5.1% | 41.3% | 10.6% |
| 16 | Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN | 9.1% | -14.1% | 1.2% | 44.1% | 10.2% |
| 17 | Syracuse, NY | 3.4% | -12.7% | 6.4% | 65.8% | 9.8% |
| 18 | Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA | 10.3% | -29.9% | -1.3% | 40.4% | 9.0% |
| 19 | Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL | 3.8% | -18.2% | 5.0% | 76.4% | 8.8% |
| 20 | Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | 11.1% | -29.9% | -2.3% | 50.0% | 8.8% |
| 21 | Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC | 5.8% | -5.3% | 1.8% | 52.9% | 7.6% |
| 22 | Lansing-East Lansing, MI | 1.2% | -14.0% | 6.2% | 42.4% | 7.4% |
| 23 | Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ | 2.2% | -13.2% | 5.0% | 62.3% | 7.3% |
| 24 | Providence-Warwick, RI-MA | 3.9% | -26.6% | 3.1% | 56.6% | 7.1% |
| 25 | New Haven-Milford, CT | 3.5% | -7.4% | 3.5% | 53.5% | 7.1% |
| 26 | Akron, OH | 3.2% | -9.0% | 3.2% | 37.6% | 6.3% |
| 27 | Portland-South Portland, ME | 8.0% | -35.2% | -1.9% | 61.1% | 6.1% |
| 28 | Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT | -1.3% | -22.5% | 7.2% | 49.7% | 5.9% |
| 29 | Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 3.7% | -20.7% | 2.2% | 71.8% | 5.9% |
| 30 | Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA | 1.1% | -17.9% | 4.5% | 55.4% | 5.6% |
| 31 | Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC | 0.3% | -9.3% | 5.3% | 45.2% | 5.5% |
| 32 | Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY | 1.1% | -24.7% | 3.7% | 45.3% | 4.9% |
| 33 | Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA | -5.6% | -25.8% | 9.9% | 52.1% | 4.4% |
| 34 | Durham-Chapel Hill, NC | -1.5% | -22.7% | 5.8% | 73.8% | 4.3% |
| 35 | Kansas City, MO-KS | 5.4% | -22.2% | -1.2% | 34.9% | 4.2% |
| 36 | Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI | -6.7% | -27.5% | 10.9% | 49.6% | 4.2% |
| 37 | Oklahoma City, OK | 1.9% | -2.3% | 1.6% | 44.5% | 3.5% |
| 38 | Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR | 0.4% | -5.7% | 3.1% | 37.7% | 3.5% |
| 39 | Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 3.9% | -55.8% | -1.0% | 55.3% | 2.9% |
| 40 | Madison, WI | 3.9% | -30.4% | -1.5% | 40.7% | 2.5% |
| 41 | Greensboro-High Point, NC | -1.2% | -3.9% | 3.3% | 55.3% | 2.1% |
| 42 | New Orleans-Metairie, LA | -1.1% | -21.1% | 3.1% | 38.9% | 2.0% |
| 43 | Dayton-Kettering, OH | -2.9% | -21.4% | 4.8% | 49.9% | 1.9% |
| 44 | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | -0.8% | -30.8% | 2.6% | 39.7% | 1.8% |
| 45 | Cleveland-Elyria, OH | -1.2% | -19.7% | 2.8% | 40.3% | 1.7% |
| 46 | Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | -3.1% | -26.4% | 4.6% | 38.1% | 1.5% |
| 47 | Tulsa, OK | -1.4% | -14.3% | 2.8% | 48.5% | 1.5% |
| 48 | Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI | 0.2% | -22.1% | 1.1% | 35.8% | 1.4% |
| 49 | Knoxville, TN | -5.9% | -25.7% | 7.2% | 93.8% | 1.3% |
| 50 | Albuquerque, NM | -4.1% | -38.4% | 5.2% | 59.0% | 1.1% |
| 51 | McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX | -0.6% | -30.4% | 1.6% | 50.8% | 1.0% |
| 52 | Tucson, AZ | 2.3% | -26.1% | -1.8% | 63.5% | 0.5% |
| 53 | Columbus, OH | -1.7% | -25.3% | 2.2% | 53.8% | 0.5% |
| 54 | Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN | -3.9% | -27.1% | 4.1% | 55.6% | 0.2% |
| 55 | Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | 4.4% | -34.7% | -4.3% | 63.8% | 0.0% |
| 56 | Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 2.9% | -3.2% | -3.5% | 67.8% | -0.6% |
| 57 | Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | -0.6% | -29.1% | -0.6% | 41.8% | -1.2% |
| 58 | Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | -7.6% | -43.9% | 6.1% | 82.8% | -1.5% |
| 59 | Chattanooga, TN-GA | -3.6% | -15.1% | 2.0% | 65.2% | -1.6% |
| 60 | Pittsburgh, PA | -8.5% | -26.9% | 6.9% | 43.0% | -1.6% |
| 61 | Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | -2.4% | -31.7% | -0.9% | 35.9% | -3.3% |
| 62 | North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL | 1.3% | -16.7% | -4.9% | 67.3% | -3.6% |
| 63 | Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL | -6.1% | -22.5% | 2.3% | 75.7% | -3.8% |
| 64 | Wichita, KS | -6.2% | -35.9% | 2.3% | 41.2% | -3.9% |
| 65 | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | -5.3% | -28.7% | 1.2% | 85.4% | -4.1% |
| 66 | San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA | -0.8% | -32.9% | -5.2% | 19.2% | -6.0% |
| 67 | Jacksonville, FL | -5.8% | -18.1% | -0.5% | 59.8% | -6.2% |
| 68 | Birmingham-Hoover, AL | -4.9% | -20.3% | -1.5% | 32.3% | -6.3% |
| 69 | Fresno, CA | -6.0% | -40.8% | -0.3% | 44.8% | -6.3% |
| 70 | Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA | 3.6% | -64.0% | -10.2% | 39.7% | -6.6% |
| 71 | Boise City, ID | -3.2% | -49.2% | -3.4% | 60.5% | -6.6% |
| 72 | Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | -3.7% | -11.8% | -2.9% | 71.2% | -6.6% |
| 73 | Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL | -3.7% | -19.9% | -3.1% | 64.2% | -6.9% |
| 74 | Winston-Salem, NC | -8.0% | -12.6% | 0.3% | 53.0% | -7.7% |
| 75 | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | -10.8% | -37.5% | 3.0% | 47.7% | -7.8% |
| 76 | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | -9.2% | -36.7% | 1.1% | 32.6% | -8.1% |
| 77 | Richmond, VA | -11.6% | -34.2% | 3.3% | 50.7% | -8.3% |
| 78 | Stockton, CA | -5.8% | -37.2% | -3.7% | 40.7% | -9.5% |
| 79 | Charleston-North Charleston, SC | -13.2% | -26.6% | 3.7% | 75.4% | -9.5% |
| 80 | Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD | -13.4% | -36.0% | 3.8% | 48.5% | -9.6% |
| 81 | Urban Honolulu, HI | -8.9% | -47.2% | -1.9% | 19.4% | -10.7% |
| 82 | Greenville-Anderson, SC | -12.4% | -34.8% | 1.0% | 61.3% | -11.4% |
| 83 | Colorado Springs, CO | -11.5% | -42.5% | -1.7% | 54.5% | -13.2% |
| 84 | Raleigh-Cary, NC | -17.0% | -41.2% | 3.6% | 70.8% | -13.4% |
| 85 | St. Louis, MO-IL | -2.3% | -47.1% | -11.7% | 13.3% | -14.0% |
| 86 | Columbia, SC | -12.3% | -26.4% | -1.8% | 50.5% | -14.1% |
| 87 | Salt Lake City, UT | -10.2% | -51.7% | -4.1% | 50.5% | -14.2% |
| 88 | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | -9.7% | -26.7% | -4.5% | 33.3% | -14.3% |
| 89 | Memphis, TN-MS-AR | -10.8% | -30.0% | -4.1% | 33.5% | -14.9% |
| 90 | San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | -18.5% | -44.1% | 3.1% | 37.3% | -15.3% |
| 91 | Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA | -15.8% | -41.0% | 0.4% | 63.3% | -15.4% |
| 92 | Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN | -11.4% | -35.0% | -4.8% | 51.3% | -16.2% |
| 93 | Ogden-Clearfield, UT | -15.1% | -53.1% | -3.8% | 57.2% | -18.9% |
| 94 | San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | -10.1% | -28.9% | -9.4% | 27.3% | -19.5% |
| 95 | Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO | -15.3% | -41.8% | -5.1% | 35.4% | -20.4% |
| 96 | Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | -12.9% | -35.3% | -8.4% | 31.4% | -21.4% |
| 97 | Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | -22.4% | -45.6% | -0.9% | 58.0% | -23.3% |
| 98 | Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX | -11.7% | -39.7% | -12.2% | 29.1% | -23.9% |
| 99 | Baton Rouge, LA | -20.4% | -38.6% | -5.6% | 17.8% | -25.9% |
| 100 | Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA | -25.6% | -61.3% | -7.4% | 23.7% | -33.0% |
According to Realtor, California’s top markets are more sensitive to mortgage rates than many other parts of the country since less than a third of “homeowners” actually own their homes outright and instead owe money to a bank or lender.
Oxnard has the lowest proportion of homeowners who own their homes outright among the top ten markets, with 30.0%, followed by San Diego (30.5%) and Riverside (38%).
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